FIRE

The core idea is a target portfolio roughly 25 times your annual spending, from which you withdraw about 4% a year. Spend $40,000 a year and the number is $1m. Spend $80,000 and it is $2m.

The 4% figure comes from historical US market data and is a planning heuristic, not a guarantee - sequence-of-returns risk means the first few years matter disproportionately. Most people who reach FIRE keep earning something anyway.

The first decade does most of the work. $200,000 invested at thirty-two and never added to again grows to roughly $1.1m by fifty-seven at 7% - so the hard part is front-loaded, and reaching a certain point early means you can stop contributing entirely and still land near the target. This is what coast FIRE describes, and it is a far more reachable goal than the full number.

Spending, not returns, is the variable you control. Every $1,000 of annual spending removed permanently is $25,000 less that you need to accumulate, and the effect is symmetrical: lifestyle added at thirty is a debt paid every year until you die. Housing, cars and childcare decide this arithmetic. Optimising small recurring purchases feels productive and moves the target by very little.